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英国“脱欧”会引发又一场英镑危机吗?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月19日 13:04:45
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万博彩票主页 - 手机版 - 为什么赌龙虎总是输平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3514565791】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。英国“脱欧”会引发又一场英镑危机吗?

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(  英)(国)(是)(否)(脱)(离)(欧)(盟)(悬)(而)(未)(决)(,英)(镑)(已)(经)(成)(为)(这)(一)(风)(险)(的)(最)(大)(受)(害)(者)(。
  按)(照)(卡)(梅)(伦)(政)(府)(2015年)(大)(选)(时)(的)(承)(诺)(,英)(国)(将)(举)(行)(“脱)(欧)(”公)(投)(,今)(年)(2月)(20日)(卡)(梅)(伦)(宣)(布)(公)(投)(日)(期)(定)(在)(6月)(23日)(。随)(着)(这)(一)(期)(限)(日)(渐)(临)(近)(,英)(镑)(成)(为)(首)(个)(对)(此)(作)(出)(反)(应)(的)(资)(产)(。
  今)(年)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(下)(跌)(超)(过)(5%,触)(及)(六)(年)(多)(以)(来)(低)(位)(。这)(让)(英)(镑)(成)(为)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(表)(现)(最)(糟)(糕)(的)(主)(要)(货)(币)(之)(一)(,跌)(幅)(仅)(次)(于)(墨)(西)(哥)(比)(索)(和)(阿)(根)(廷)(比)(索)(。《金)(融)(时)(报)(》说)(,自)(1971年)(布)(雷)(顿)(森)(林)(体)(系)(终)(结)(之)(后)(,1英)(镑)(兑)(1.4美)(元)(成)(为)(英)(镑)(在)(浮)(动)(汇)(率)(时)(代)(实)(际)(上)(的)(底)(线)(。但)(就)(在)(2月)(24日)(,英)(镑)(跌)(破)(了)(这)(一)(关)(键)(点)(位)(,触)(及)(1.3965美)(元)(。周)(二)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(收)(于)(1.39643。从)(去)(年)(6月)(创)(下)(高)(点)(至)(今)(,英)(镑)(兑)(美)(元)(已)(经)(下)(跌)(12%。
  全)(球)(最)(大)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(贝)(莱)(德)((Blackrock)近)(日)(发)(布)(报)(告)(称)(,倘)(若)(英)(国)(公)(投)(决)(定)(脱)(离)(欧)(盟)(,可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(一)(次)(“英)(镑)(危)(机)(”。汇)(丰)(银)(行)((HSBC)上)(周)(发)(布)(报)(告)(警)(告)(说)(,“脱)(欧)(”可)(能)(导)(致)(英)(镑)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(20%,并)(使)(英)(国)(经)(济)(总)(量)(减)(少)(1.5%。瑞)(银)((UBS)分)(析)(师)(团)(队)(在)(2月)(29日)(的)(一)(份)(报)(告)(中)(说)(,英)(国)(退)(出)(欧)(盟)(可)(能)(导)(致)(英)(镑)(兑)(欧)(元)(跌)(至)(平)(价)(水)(平)(。按)(照)(最)(新)(汇)(率)(,1英)(镑)(相)(当)(于)(1.2850欧)(元)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,英)(镑)(兑)(欧)(元)(有)(可)(能)(再)(下)(跌)(22%以)(上)(。
  贝)(莱)(德)(多)(资)(产)(策)(略)(首)(席)(宏)(观)(策)(略)(师)(哈)(里)(森)((RupertHarrison)说)(:“我)(们)(无)(法)(排)(除)(英)(镑)(无)(底)(线)(下)(跌)(的)(情)(况)(。”哈)(里)(森)(曾)(是)(英)(国)(财)(政)(大)(臣)(奥)(斯)(本)((GeorgeOsborne)的)(特)(别)(顾)(问)(。他)(说)(,在)(这)(样)(的)(“传)(统)(英)(镑)(危)(机)(”中)(,英)(国)(央)(行)(可)(能)(在)(经)(济)(乏)(力)(的)(情)(况)(下)(被)(迫)(加)(息)(。最)(糟)(糕)(的)(情)(形)(是)(出)(现)(“货)(币)(疲)(弱)(恶)(性)(循)(环)(,资)(本)(流)(入)(戛)(然)(而)(止)(,市)(场)(信)(心)(严)(重)(受)(损)(。”
  汇)(丰)(的)(报)(告)(解)(释)(说)(,当)(前)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(仅)(消)(化)(了)(33%的)(“脱)(欧)(”可)(能)(性)(。如)(果)(公)(投)(决)(定)(脱)(离)(欧)(盟)(,将)(会)(导)(致)(英)(镑)(对)(美)(元)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(15%到)(20%。那)(将)(会)(是)(自)(上)(世)(纪)(80年)(代)(以)(来)(最)(低)(的)(汇)(率)(水)(平)(。“脱)(欧)(”还)(会)(加)(剧)(英)(国)(“双)(重)(赤)(字)(”担)(忧)(——政)(府)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(和)(经)(常)(项)(目)(赤)(字)(,进)(而)(导)(致)(资)(本)(外)(流)(。
  报)(告)(还)(说)(,虽)(然)(英)(镑)(走)(弱)(会)(降)(低)(出)(口)(价)(格)(,但)(同)(时)(也)(会)(使)(进)(口)(商)(品)(和)(服)(务)(更)(加)(昂)(贵)(。这)(最)(终)(可)(能)(是)(英)(国)(通)(胀)(水)(平)(上)(升)(5个)(百)(分)(点)(,从)(而)(侵)(蚀)(实)(际)(收)(入)(、抑)(制)(家)(庭)(开)(支)(。
  为)(什)(么)(英)(镑)(会)(成)(为)(首)(当)(其)(冲)(的)(受)(害)(者)(呢)(?就)(像)(瑞)(银)(所)(说)(:“货)(币)(是)(不)(确)(定)(性)(的)(主)(要)(晴)(雨)(表)(。”英)(国)(股)(市)(目)(前)(几)(乎)(没)(有)(受)(到)(“脱)(欧)(”影)(响)(;英)(国)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(虽)(然)(有)(所)(下)(跌)(,但)(跌)(势)(不)(如)(英)(镑)(这)(样)(明)(显)(。
  一)(个)(重)(要)(原)(因)(在)(于)(英)(国)(巨)(大)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(赤)(字)(。英)(国)(经)(常)(项)(目)(赤)(字)(目)(前)(相)(当)(于)(GDP的)(3.7%,而)(历)(史)(平)(均)(水)(平)(约)(为)(2%。这)(在)(一)(般)(情)(况)(下)(不)(会)(造)(成)(麻)(烦)(,因)(为)(英)(国)(通)(常)(都)(获)(得)(资)(本)(流)(入)(。不)(过)(这)(也)(意)(味)(着)(,如)(果)(要)(维)(持)(英)(镑)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(,英)(国)(必)(须)(持)(续)(保)(有)(吸)(引)(资)(本)(流)(入)(的)(能)(力)(。但)(“脱)(欧)(”有)(很)(大)(可)(能)(大)(幅)(削)(弱)(这)(种)(能)(力)(——商)(品)(服)(务)(贸)(易)(停)(顿)(、境)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(放)(缓)(,都)(对)(英)(镑)(不)(利)(。
  路)(透)(社)(的)(文)(章)(说)(,目)(前)(的)(情)(况)(与)(历)(史)(上)(的)(一)(些)(英)(镑)(“危)(机)(”有)(所)(不)(同)(。二)(战)(结)(束)(后)(的)(一)(段)(时)(期)(内)(,英)(国)(为)(了)(维)(护)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(度)((布)(雷)(顿)(森)(林)(体)(系)(下)(与)(美)(元)(挂)(钩)(),时)(常)(面)(临)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(消)(耗)(殆)(尽)(的)(窘)(境)(。
  1992年)(,英)(镑)(因)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(而)(面)(临)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(。在)(欧)(洲)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(之)(下)(,英)(国)(政)(府)(必)(须)(保)(护)(英)(镑)(与)(德)(国)(马)(克)(的)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(。当)(时)(,英)(国)(央)(行)(不)(但)(大)(规)(模)(动)(用)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(干)(预)(市)(场)(,甚)(至)(曾)(在)(一)(天)(内)(两)(度)(提)(高)(利)(率)(。即)(便)(如)(此)(,英)(镑)(跌)(势)(仍)(未)(缓)(解)(。最)(终)(,英)(国)(宣)(布)(退)(出)(欧)(洲)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(,引)(发)(了)(二)(战)(后)(最)(严)(重)(的)(货)(币)(危)(机)(。那)(期)(间)(,金)(融)(大)(鳄)(索)(罗)(斯)((GeorgeSoros)认)(定)(英)(国)(难)(以)(维)(持)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(,大)(举)(做)(空)(英)(镑)(,最)(终)(大)(获)(全)(胜)(。
  如)(今)(,英)(国)(央)(行)(并)(未)(明)(确)(设)(定)(任)(何)(汇)(率)(目)(标)(,也)(让)(投)(机)(者)(无)(从)(对)(英)(镑)(“下)(手)(”。浮)(动)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(下)(,即)(便)(英)(镑)(下)(跌)(,资)(本)(流)(入)(“骤)(停)(”的)(风)(险)(也)(被)(降)(低)(了)(。
  市)(场)(最)(担)(忧)(的)(是)(,英)(镑)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(可)(能)(在)(某)(种)(情)(况)(下)(破)(坏)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(对)(英)(国)(企)(业)(及)(其)(资)(产)(的)(信)(心)(。英)(国)(是)(经)(常)(项)(目)(赤)(字)(最)(大)(的)(发)(达)(国)(家)(之)(一)(,并)(且)(一)(直)(依)(赖)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(来)(弥)(补)(这)(一)(逆)(差)(。英)(国)(央)(行)(行)(长)(卡)(尼)((MarkCarney)称)(之)(为)(“陌)(生)(人)(的)(好)(意)(”(kindnessofstrangers)。
  英)(国)(国)(家)(统)(计)(办)(公)(室)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,经)(常)(项)(目)(逆)(差)(占)(GDP的)(比)(例)(在)(2014年)(达)(到)(6%,创)(下)(自)(1955年)(有)(记)(录)(以)(来)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。若)(要)(维)(持)(英)(镑)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(,英)(国)(需)(要)(每)(年)(约)(700亿)(英)(镑)(、或)(每)(天)(两)(亿)(英)(镑)(的)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(入)(。
  迄)(今)(为)(止)(,国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(仍)(乐)(于)(填)(补)(这)(项)(赤)(字)(。2015年)(,他)(们)(买)(下)(了)(净)(值)(605亿)(英)(镑)(的)(英)(国)(公)(债)(,总)(量)(创)(下)(近)(五)(年)(之)(最)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(,外)(国)(人)(目)(前)(持)(有)(25.9%的)(全)(部)(未)(到)(期)(英)(国)(公)(债)(。2008年)(时)(,该)(比)(例)(为)(35.9%。国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)((IMF)数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(全)(球)(央)(行)(大)(约)(4.7%的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(以)(英)(镑)(计)(价)(,1999年)(时)(仅)(有)(2.7%。
  然)(而)(,当)(市)(场)(信)(心)(受)(挫)(时)(,“变)(脸)(”会)(以)(迅)(雷)(不)(及)(掩)(耳)(之)(势)(发)(生)(。据)(英)(国)(银)(行)(统)(计)(,仅)(在)(1992年)(8月)(,也)(就)(是)(英)(国)(退)(出)(欧)(洲)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(前)(一)(个)(月)(,国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(就)(抛)(售)(了)(15.8亿)(英)(镑)(英)(国)(国)(债)(。那)(是)(1982年)(至)(1997年)(间)(海)(外)(投)(资)(者)(最)(大)(单)(月)(抛)(售)(额)(。
  此)(外)(,虽)(然)(英)(国)(政)(府)(自)(14世)(纪)(以)(来)(没)(有)(出)(现)(过)(债)(务)(完)(全)(违)(约)(,并)(且)(拥)(有)(大)(量)(国)(内)(储)(蓄)(,但)(如)(果)(外)(国)(投)(资)(者)(的)(英)(镑)(贷)(款)(和)(投)(资)(因)(英)(镑)(贬)(值)(而)(大)(幅)(缩)(水)(,这)(些)(优)(势)(也)(会)(变)(得)(无)(关)(紧)(要)(。
  当)(前)(形)(势)(下)(,海)(外)(投)(资)(者)(可)(能)(会)(继)(续)(向)(英)(国)(投)(资)(,但)(也)(会)(要)(求)(更)(高)(的)(利)(率)(以)(补)(偿)(汇)(率)(损)(失)(,而)(这)(将)(抬)(高)(英)(国)(总)(体)(借)(贷)(成)(本)(。
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